Recent US Intelligence Report observes that India under Prime Minister Modi is more likeley to respond with military force to real or perceived Pakistani provocations.
US Intelligence Report titled 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of The U.S. Intelligence Community published on 6th February 2023 by Office of the Director of National Intelligence discusses potential interstate conflict (in view of experience of wide-ranging repercussions of Russia-Ukraine crisis at global scale) that may require U.S. attention.
Regarding India and China, the report notes that relation between the two remain strained following 2020 Galwan clash. Both the countries have significant military deployment at LAC that has the potential to escalate.
On India–Pakistan relations, the report observes that in view of Pakistan’s long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, India under PM Modi is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to provocations by Pakistan. Each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.
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